This past Friday, the Department of Labor reported that the number of Jobs grew by 227,000, which was about one-third higher than estimated. The Unemployment Rate grew from 4.7% to 4.8%, but, otherwise, it was a good report. In an article in the Washington Post, Donald Trump claimed credit, even though he was only in office for one-third of the month.
Economists always suggest that the Employment Market is subject to “Seasonality” Factors, such as weather; where holidays occur during the month; number of business days, etc. Generally, its best to review all Employment Statistics over a course of time, perhaps several quarters, in order to arrive at rational conclusions.
In the New York Times, however, rather than beating his chest over the Jobs Report, Trump was complaining, on the very same day—saying that the real unemployment rate is 42%. There are six different iterations of an Unemployment Rate, which the DOL reports monthly; however, the highest (U6) only reflects a 9.4% rate—meaning that the individuals have looked for a job at least once during the month, as does the regular rate. The U6 Report, however, also includes people who want a job but haven’t even looked, or have only found part-time work.
Now, we can almost reach Trump’s 42% assertion; but, only by counting every adult in America, who is not working. That would have to include: stay-at-home mothers (or fathers), the elderly and disabled, the wealthy, retired people, and those who are just not interested in looking for job.
Perhaps Donald Trump is setting himself up with an excuse for when the Economy sours on all of his Executive Orders, Tweets, failure to release Tax Returns or divest himself—and his Family—from his Business Empire. It’s not just the Economy that could go awry; so Donald, better get ready!