Last night, Election Evening started-out with America apparently poised to elect our Nation’s first female President, Secretary Hillary R. Clinton. Eventually, it did became momentous, but for a much darker reason—at least, as it appeared at the time! A projected Donald J. Trump victory. Sorry World, for unleashing Trump on everyone!
My last blog post, titled “Yes, the ‘Trump Effect’ has begun!”, was meant to be a tongue-in-cheek taunt at the self-proclaimed multi-billionaire, as the market sought value in Donald Trump’s anticipated loss. On Sunday, FBI Director, James Comey, had revealed that there did not appear to be any further Emails that might incriminate Secretary Clinton. But…perhaps much of the Early Votes had already been cast!
As has often been noted, both of our Presidential candidates are flawed. Yes, Secretary Hillary Clinton treated State Department Emails quite cavalierly; however, there is quite a difference between administrative mismanagement and Trump’s inability to comprehend complex issues, as well as his dangerous admiration for autocracies.
At approximately 9:40 PM EST last evening, when it was beginning to look like Mr. Trump might actually have a chance of winning, NBC announced “Breaking News”: the Dow Jones Industrial Average “Futures” (a projection of where the key stock index might open this morning) indicated that it would be “Down” by more than 500 points. Equally scary, futures trading had also been stopped for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Indices, since they had already fallen through their five percent “circuit breakers”(automatically causes trading to stop). I could only wonder, at that time, what would Wednesday morning might bring?
This morning, although the markets were still poised to drop considerably in the early morning, they stabilized at the Open, and were trading just slightly on the negative side around 11:30 AM. Asia-Pacific had already closed—prior to the New York Open—however, Europe had rebounded, closing nicely to the upside. A Trump Presidency will probably add some uncertainty regarding the widely-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.
The U.S. financial markets will probably be somewhat skittish today, especially with the combined election night surprise, and the even more astounding rebound this morning. Perhaps we might see somewhat of a tug-of-war, as money flows alternate between Trumpians investing in the markets, only to have that euphoria reversed by the “Anyone But Trump” club. Hopefully, the market volatility will subside by tomorrow. But, only time will tell!