WHAT MORE FALL-OUT MIGHT THERE BE FROM THE RECENT U.K. ELECTIONS?

British Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a resounding victory in the May 7 National Elections.  In fact, his “Tories” surprised everyone by gaining enough seats in Parliament to “form a government”, without the help of any coalition parties.  But personally, I believe that all eyes remain fixed on Scotland.

Over the years, Scotland has held a number of non-binding referendums, which were basically used to check the public sentiment of Scots as to whether to seek independence from the much larger United Kingdom (Britain, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).  With each vote, the Independence sentiment has gained more support; however, the various British Prime Ministers have granted more and more autonomy in order to keep Scotland in the fold.

The Scottish National Party now holds 56, of the 59, Scottish seats in the UK Parliament. That shifting political wind might even be more onerous for the Conservative Party as SNP–which jumped from just six seats previously in Westminster–has vehemently espoused Scottish Independence.  Besides , many are now wondering how long Nicola Sturgeon will bide her time before, once again, holding an Independence Referendum.  Some might also question whether this movement might portend similar rumblings in Northern Ireland or Wales.

Scotland might make a go of Independence, since it is roughly the same size as Ireland: 5.3 million population and a GDP of $216 billion, as compared to the Irish population of 4.6 million and $218 billion GDP.  Scotland would have to form a close working economic and defense relationship with UK, however, as well as its full cooperation in unbundling their two countries–that is, if Scottish Independence is ever realized.

But, Northern Ireland and Wales, at least in my opinion, are much too small to go solo.  Northern Ireland has a population of 1.8 million and a GDP of approximately just $24 billion, and Wales has a population of 3.0 million, with a GDP of $30 billion.  Those regions pale when compared to the $216 billion GDP of Scotland.

NOTE:  Spain would almost certainly Veto any newly-independent breakaway nations from joining the European Union.  It is currently trying to resist–actually ignore–the separatist demands of its own potential breakaway province–Catalonia, which is its most economically productive region..

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  1. #1 by Michael Follon on May 31, 2015 - 5:16 PM

    ‘Over the years, Scotland has held a number of non-binding referendums, which were basically used to check the public sentiment of Scots as to whether to seek independence from the much larger United Kingdom…’

    That is a lot of absolute nonsense. You have clearly not done any research on the subject. The only time there has been a referendum in Scotland on the specific subject of Scottish independence was on September 18, 2014.

    The only other referendums which you wrongly assumed pertained to the possibility of Scottish independence were as follows –

    March 1, 1979 – Referendum on a devolved Scottish Assembly: the Scotland Act 1978,

    September 11, 1997 – Pre-legislative referendum on a devolved Scottish Parliament: the Scotland Bill 1997.

    Michael Follon

    • #2 by cheekos on May 31, 2015 - 6:52 PM

      Mr. Fallon, thanks for Commenting on the recent blog post and, as you so eloquently did, correcting my assertion in the recent post on what the fall-out might be from the recent British National Election. I have often cautioned readers not to assume that the Media in America should not always be assumed to be correct with matters beyond our shore, if even than. And that point also applies to this blogger–ME.

      I am not suggesting that Scotland will, in fact, gain independence. It would probably be most difficult for it to unbundle itself from the UK and, as previously noted, to perhaps to operate outside the E.U. The economics of the situation suggests that a nation operates best with efficient financial markets, a marketable currency to transact foreign trade and a large pool of markets for it have access to. Many domestic issues, such as education, health care, national defense would also have to be divided. And of course, the Balance Sheet items–Assets and Liabilities.

      The fact that the Scottish National Party won 56 of the 59 seats in the British Parliament, however, clearly does make a statement. As long as SNP retains that large voting block, it will maintain its position as a force to be reckoned with.

      Thanks again, Mr. Fallon, for correcting me on my false assertion!

  2. #3 by Michael Follon on May 31, 2015 - 7:52 PM

    Cheekos, thank you for replying to my comment. You are correct to mention the division of Assets and Liabilities. During the referendum campaign last year the NO campaign went out of their way to suggest that the YES campaign, and the SNP in particular, were advocating that an independent Scotland would not accept its share of the National Debt. That was deliberate misinformation and scare tactics. They also said that even if Scotland accepted its share of the National Debt it would not receive a division of the Assets.

    Could I just stress that I spell my surname FOLLON not FALLON. There is a Conservative MP by the name of Michael Fallon – I wouldn’t want to be confused with him!

    • #4 by cheekos on June 1, 2015 - 2:33 AM

      Mr. Michael FOLLON, I stand corrected on the name. Being one-quarter Irish, I understand the subtle differences in the spellings of names between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. Personally, I believe that the whole Scottish Independence thing is more one about horse-trading, or shaking the Brits down for as much as they can get out of them. But, at least Queen Elizabeth can summer at Balmoral–whatever the politics–since it is personally owned by the Royal Family.

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