IS CHINA THE NEXT RISING GREAT POWER?

Traditionally, Great Powers are identified as those having both a Strong Economy and a Strong Military. But, I believe that, contrary to popular belief, China has neither. In the linked article from Tuesday’s NY Times, China’s Economic Growth and American Fears by Uwe E. Reinhardt, a Princeton Economics Professor, discusses the two Countries’ Projected GDPs, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/chinas-economic-growth-and-american-fears/?pagewanted=print. Remember that the Gross Domestic Product is the total of Goods and Services produced by a County.

There are a couple of important points that Prof. Reinhardt’s article points out. Just like a small company can grow faster than a much larger one, since is moving from a much smaller base, that applies to countries, as wqell. Also, when you consider the Population of China or India, their much higher GDP Projections are actually much smaller on a per capita basis.

China’s Economy is mostly low-end goods, produced by non-professional workers. Domestic Consumption only accounts for approximately 35% of GDP. So, the Chinese production is mostly based on what it can export, mostly to the West. And, as the Economy has grown, Wages in the more Industrialized-Coastal Regions have risen–thus reducing the Pay Scales over other countries somewhat.

With regard to the Chinese Military, it has a One Million Man (and Woman) Army. And, although it has deployed troops to Africa, for example, it doesn’t readily do so. When former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited, a few months ago, it rolled out a Stealth Fighter; however, nothing has been heard of that program since.

In a previous Post, I wrote “Paper Asian Tiger?”, https://thetruthoncommonsense.com/?s=Paper+Asian+Tiger%3F. It rolled-out it’s first Aircraft Carrier, however, it was an old one that had been purchased (and refurbished) from the Ukraine. Additionally, China doesn’t have any Aircraft that are equipped to take-off and land from Naval Aircraft Carriers. So, to an extent, it is much ado about nothing. More for show!

So, it appears that China’s Economy is very much dependent on overseas markets. And, it’s very large Military is mostly based on Manpower; but, without the Technology or Equipment to take much of it to Foreign Ports. By the Definition pointed-out at the beginning of this Post, that means that China has not improved it’s Political Stature yet.

This Thursday, China completed it’s ten-year turn-over of power. In today’s NY Times, there is an article, “China’s Communist Party Concludes Its Congress”, by Edward Wong, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/15/world/asia/communists-conclude-party-congress-in-china.html?hp&_r=0, which discusses it. (Remember that, as I write this, it is already Thursday in Beijing.) The new President Xi and his colleagues will be the ones to move China into the Present.

Traditionally, Great Powers are identified as those having both a Strong Economy and a Strong Military. But, I believe that, contrary to popular belief, China has neither. In the linked article from Tuesday’s NY Times, China’s Economic Growth and American Fears
by Uwe E. Reinhardt, a Princeton Economics Professor, discusses the two Countries’ Projected GDPs, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/chinas-economic-growth-and-american-fears/?pagewanted=print. Remember that the Gross Domestic Product is the total of Goods and Services produced by a County.

China’s Economy is mostly low-end goods, produced by non-professional workers. Domestic Consumption only accounts for approximately 35% of GDP. So, the Chinese production is mostly based on what it can export, mostly to the West. And, as the Economy has grown, Wages in the more Industrialized-Coastal Regions have risen–thus reducing the Pay Scales over other countries somewhat.

With regard to the Chinese Military, it has a One Million Man (and Woman) Army. And, although it has deployed troops to Africa, for example, it doesn’t readily do so. When former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited, a few months ago, it rolled out a Stealth Fighter; however, nothing has been heard of that program since.

In a previous Post, I wrote “Paper Asian Tiger?”, https://thetruthoncommonsense.com/?s=Paper+Asian+Tiger%3F. It rolled-out it’s first Aircraft Carrier, however, it was an old one that had been purchased (and refurbished) from the Ukraine. Additionally, China doesn’t have any Aircraft that are equipped to take-off and land from Naval Aircraft Carriers. So, to an extent, it is much ado about nothing. More for show!

So, it appears that China’s Economy is very much dependent on overseas markets. And, it’s very large Military is mostly based on Manpower; but, without the Technology or Equipment to take much of it to Foreign Ports. By the Definition pointed-out at the beginning of this Post, that means that China has not improved it’s Political Stature yet.

This Thursday, China completed it’s ten-year turn-over of power. In today’s NY Times, there is an article, “China’s Communist Party Concludes Its Congress”, by Edward Wong, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/15/world/asia/communists-conclude-party-congress-in-china.html?hp&_r=0, which discusses it. (Remember that, as I write this, it is already Thursday in Beijing.) The new President Xi and his colleagues will be the ones to move China into the Present.

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